Activities

Research activities

energy system analysis
market design and capacity mechanisms
security of supply in the electricity sector
decarbonisation of the energy sector
price and load forecasting
investment decision under uncertainty via stochastic programming
risk management and quantitative modeling

Teaching activities

lecture "Energy Trading and Risk Management"
lecture "Quantitative Methods for Energy Economics"
lecture "Energy Markets"
seminar "New developments and modeling in European energy markets"
supervision of bachelor and master thesis

Paper in peer-reviewed journals

Will, C.; Zimmermann, F.; Ensslen, A.; Fraunholz, C.; Jochem, P.; Keles, D. (2024). Can electric vehicle charging be carbon neutral? Uniting smart charging and renewables. Applied Energy, 371, Article no: 123549. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123549
Backer, M.; Keles, D.; Kraft, E. (2023). The economic impacts of integrating European balancing markets: The case of the newly installed aFRR energy market-coupling platform PICASSO. Energy Economics, 128, Art.-Nr.: 107124. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107124
Zimmermann, F.; Keles, D. (2023). State or market: Investments in new nuclear power plants in France and their domestic and cross-border effects. Energy Policy, 173, Art.-Nr.: 113403. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113403
Yilmaz, H. Ü.; Kimbrough, S. O.; van Dinther, C.; Keles, D. (2022). Power-to-gas: Decarbonization of the European electricity system with synthetic methane. Applied Energy, 323, Art.-Nr.: 119538. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119538
Russo, M.; Kraft, E.; Bertsch, V.; Keles, D. (2022). Short-term risk management of electricity retailers under rising shares of decentralized solar generation. Energy Economics, 109, Artikel-Nr.: 105956. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105956
Dehler-Holland, J.; Okoh, M.; Keles, D. (2022). Assessing technology legitimacy with topic models and sentiment analysis – The case of wind power in Germany. Technological forecasting and social change, 175, Art. Nr.: 121354. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121354
Kraft, E.; Russo, M.; Keles, D.; Bertsch, V. (2022). Stochastic optimization of trading strategies in sequential electricity markets. European Journal of Operational Research, 308 (1), 400–421. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2022.10.040
Keles, D.; Dehler-Holland, J. (2022). Evaluation of photovoltaic storage systems on energy markets under uncertainty using stochastic dynamic programming. Energy economics, 106, Art.-Nr.: 105800. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105800
Fett, D.; Fraunholz, C.; Keles, D. (2021). Diffusion and system impact of residential battery storage under different regulatory settings. Energy policy, 158, Artikel-Nr.: 112543. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112543
Fraunholz, C.; Kraft, E.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2021). Advanced price forecasting in agent-based electricity market simulation. Applied energy, 290, 116688. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116688
Zimmermann, F.; Bublitz, A.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2021). Cross-border Effects of Capacity Remuneration Mechanisms: The Swiss Case. The energy journal, 42 (2), 1–2. doi:10.5547/01956574.42.2.fzim
Khuong, P. M.; Yilmaz, H. Ü.; McKenna, R.; Keles, D. (2021). A statistical approach to identify asynchronous extreme events for multi-regional energy system models. International journal of energy sector management, 15 (2), 352–384. doi:10.1108/IJESM-11-2019-0010
Fraunholz, C.; Hladik, D.; Keles, D.; Möst, D.; Fichtner, W. (2021). On the long-term efficiency of market splitting in Germany. Energy policy, 149, Art.-Nr.: 111833. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111833
Fraunholz, C.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2021). On the role of electricity storage in capacity remuneration mechanisms. Energy policy, 149, Art.-Nr.: 112014. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112014
Kraft, E.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2020). Modelling of Frequency Containment Reserve Prices with Econometrics and Artificial Intelligence. Journal of forecasting, 39 (8), 1179–1197. doi:10.1002/for.2693
Keles, D.; Dehler-Holland, J.; Densing, M.; Panos, E.; Hack, F. (2020). Cross-border Effects in Interconnected Electricity Markets - An Analysis of the Swiss Electricity Prices. Energy economics, 90, Art.-Nr. 104802. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104802
Fiorelli, M.; Keles, D.; Montana, F.; Restifo, G. L.; Riva Sanseverino, E.; Zizzo, G. (2020). Evaluation of the Administrative Phase-Out of Coal Power Plants on the Italian Electricity Market. Energies, 13 (18), Art. Nr.: 4596. doi:10.3390/en13184596
Keles, D.; Yilmaz, H. Ü. (2020). Decarbonisation through coal phase-out in Germany and Europe — Impact on Emissions, electricity prices and power production. Energy policy, 141, Article-No.111472. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111472
Yilmaz, H. Ü.; Fouché, E.; Dengiz, T.; Krauß, L.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2019). Reducing energy time series for energy system models via self-organizing maps. Information technology, 61 (2-3), 125–133. doi:10.1515/itit-2019-0025
Fett, D.; Keles, D.; Kaschub, T.; Fichtner, W. (2019). Impacts of self-generation and self-consumption on German household electricity prices. Journal of business economics, 89, 867–891. doi:10.1007/s11573-019-00936-3
Bublitz, A.; Keles, D.; Zimmermann, F.; Fraunholz, C.; Fichtner, W. (2019). A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms. Energy economics, 80, 1059–1078. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2019.01.030
Yilmaz, H. Ü.; Keles, D.; Chiodi, A.; Hartel, R.; Mikulić, M. (2018). Analysis of the power-to-heat potential in the European energy system. Energy strategy reviews, 20, 6–19. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2017.12.009
Bublitz, A.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2017). An analysis of the decline of electricity spot prices in Europe : Who is to blame?. Energy policy, 107, 323–336. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.04.034
Keles, D.; Jochem, P.; McKenna, R.; Ruppert, M.; Fichtner, W. (2017). Meeting the Modeling Needs of Future Energy Systems. Energy technology, 5 (7), 1007–1025. doi:10.1002/ente.201600607
Ringler, P.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2017). How to benefit from a common European electricity market design. Energy policy, 101, 629–643. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.11.011
Ringler, P.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2016). Agent-based modelling and simulation of smart electricity grids and markets - A literature review. Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, 57, 205–2015. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.169
Paraschiv, F.; Hadzi-Mishev, R.; Keles, D. (2016). Extreme Value Theory for Heavy-Tails in Electricity Prices. The journal of energy markets, 9 (2), 21–50. doi:10.21314/JEM.2016.141
Keles, D.; Scelle, J.; Paraschiv, F.; Fichtner, W. (2016). Extended forecast methods for day-ahead electricity spot prices applying artificial neural networks. Applied energy, 162, 218–230. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.09.087
Keles, D.; Bublitz, A.; Zimmermann, F.; Genoese, M.; Fichtner, W. (2016). Analysis of design options for the electricity market: The German case. Applied energy, 183, 884–901. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.189
Bublitz, A.; Keles, D.; Zimmermann, F.; Genoese, M.; Fichtner, W. (2015). Bewertung der Klimainstrumente für den deutschen Strommarkt. ew - Magazin für Energiewirtschaft, (8), 32–33.
Winkler, J.; Keles, D.; Renz, L.; Sensfuß, F.; Fichtner, W. (2013). Perspektiven zur aktuellen Kapazitätsmarktdiskussion in Deutschland. Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft, 37 (4), 233–248. doi:10.1007/s12398-013-0114-8
Keles, D.; Genoese, M.; Möst, D.; Ortlieb, S.; Fichtner, W. (2013). A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices. Energy policy, 59, 213–225. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.028
Winkler, J.; Keles, D.; Renz, L.; Sensfuß, F.; Fichtner, W. (2013). Kapazitätsmechanismen oder Weiterentwicklung des Energy-Only-Markts. EW, (10), 29–31.
Keles, D.; Genoese, M.; Möst, D.; Fichtner, W. (2012). Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices. Energy economics, 34 (4), 1012–1032. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.08.012
Keles, D.; Hartel, R.; Most, D.; Fichtner, W. (2012). Compressed-air energy storage power plant investments under uncertain electricity prices: an evaluation of compressed-air energy storage plants in liberalized energy markets. The journal of energy markets, 5 (1), 53–84.
Keles, D.; Möst, D.; Fichtner, W. (2011). The development of the German energy market until 2030-A critical survey of selected scenarios. Energy policy, 39 (2), 812–825. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.055
Möst, D.; Keles, D. (2010). A survey of stochastic modelling approaches for liberalised electricity markets. European Journal of Operational Research, 207 (2), 543–556. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2009.11.007
Köhler, J.; Wietschel, M.; Whitmarsh, L.; Keles, D.; Schade, W. (2010). Infrastructure investment for a transition to hydrogen automobiles. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77 (8), 1237–1248. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.03.010
Keles, D.; Wietschel, M.; Möst, D.; Rentz, O. (2008). Market penetration of fuel cell vehicles - Analysis based on agent behaviour. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 33 (16), 4444–4455.

Books

Hartel, R.; Slednev, V.; Yilmaz, H. Ü.; Ardone, A.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W.; Eßer, A.; Klobasa, M.; Kühnbach, M.; Manz, P.; Globisch, J.; Elsland, R.; Wietschel, M. (2019). Dekarbonisierung des Energiesystems durch verstärkten Einsatz erneuerbaren Stroms im Wärme-, Verkehrs- und Industriesektor bei gleichzeitigen Stilllegungen von Kraftwerken – Auswirkungen auf die Versorgungssicherheit in Süddeutschland. KIT Scientific Publishing. doi:10.5445/KSP/1000087897
Welsch, M.; Pye, S.; Keles, D.; Faure-Schuyer, A.; Dobbins, A.; Shivakumar, A.; Deane, P.; Howells, M. (2017). Europe’s Energy Transition - Insights for Policy Making. Academic Press.
Ringler, P.; Schermeyer, H.; Ruppert, M.; Hayn, M.; Bertsch, V.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2016). Decentralized Energy Systems, Market Integration, Optimization. KIT Scientific Publishing. doi:10.5445/KSP/1000053596
Keles, D.; Renz, L.; Bublitz, A.; Zimmermann, F.; Genoese, M.; Fichtner, W.; Höfling, H.; Sensfuß, F.; Winkler, J. (2016). Zukunftsfähige Designoptionen für den deutschen Strommarkt : ein Vergleich des Energy-only-Marktes mit Kapazitätsmärkten. KIT Scientific Publishing. doi:10.5445/KSP/1000050759
Keles, D. (2013). Uncertainties in energy markets and their consideration in energy storage evaluation. PhD dissertation. KIT Scientific Publishing. doi:10.5445/KSP/1000035365

Book chapter

Fraunholz, C.; Bublitz, A.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2021). Impact of Electricity Market Designs on Investments in Flexibility Options. The Future European Energy System – Renewable Energy, Flexibility Options and Technological Progress. Ed.: D. Möst, 199–218, Springer International Publishing. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-60914-6_11
Dehler, J.; Keles, D.; Telsnig, T.; Fleischer, B.; Baumann, M.; Fraboulet, D.; Faure-Schuyer, A.; Fichtner, W. (2017). Self-consumption of electricity from renewable sources. Europe’s energy transition : insights for policy making, 225–236, Elsevier. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-809806-6.00027-4
Keles, D.; Möst, D.; Fichtner, W. (2010). Szenarien. Energietechnologien 2050 - Schwerpunkte für Forschung und Entwicklung - Politikbericht. Hrsg.: M. Wietschel, 21–30, Fraunhofer Verlag.
Keles, D.; Möst, D.; Fichtner, W. (2009). Die Entwicklung der Energiemärkte bis 2050 : Ein Überblick über ausgewählte Szenarien. Energiesystemanalyse. Hrsg.: D. Möst, 62–77, Universitätsverlag Karlsruhe.

Proceedings

Yilmaz, H. U.; Mainzer, K.; Keles, D. (2020). Improving the performance of solving large scale mixed-integer energy system models by applying the fix-and-relax method. 17th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2020, Stockholm, Sweden, 16 - 18 September 2020, 9221934. doi:10.1109/EEM49802.2020.9221934
Rothenberg, F.; Braun, S.; Zimmermann, F.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2020). Investment decision support for zero subsidy wind and solar – An optimization based simulation approach. 17th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2020, Stockholm, Sweden, 16 - 18 September 2020, 1–5, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/EEM49802.2020.9221884
Kraft, E.; Ocker, F.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2019). On the Impact of Voluntary Bids in Balancing Reserve Markets. 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM 2019), Ljubljana, SLO, September 18-20, 2019, 1–6, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/EEM.2019.8916455
Fraunholz, C.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2019). Agent-Based Generation and Storage Expansion Planning in Interconnected Electricity Markets. 2019 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Ljubljana, Slovenia, Slovenia, 18-20 Sept. 2019, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/EEM.2019.8916348
Dehler, J.; Henni, S.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2019). The EEG-attention cycle and the diffusion of solar energy technologies. Proceedings of the KSS Research Workshop: a Selection of Talks and Presentations on Designing the Digital Transformation. Ed.: S. Morana, 1–9, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT).
Kraft, E.; Rominger, J.; Mohiuddin, V.; Keles, D. (2019). Forecasting of Frequency Containment Reserve Prices Using Econometric and Artificial Intelligence Approaches. 11. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung an der TU Wien, Vienna, Austria, 13. - 15. Februar 2019.
Fett, D.; Neu, M.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2018). Self-Consumption Potentials of Existing PV Systems in German Households. 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lodz, Poland, 27–29 June 2018, 1–5, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/EEM.2018.8469844
Kraft, E.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2018). Analysis of Bidding Strategies in the German Control Reserve Market. 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lódz, PL, November 27-29, 2018, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/EEM.2018.8469903
Yilmaz, H. Ü.; Keles, D.; Bchini, Q.; Hartel, R.; Fichtner, W. (2018). Auswirkungen eines möglichen Kohleausstiegs im Vereinigten Königreich und in Deutschland auf den Strommix und die CO2-Emmissonen in Europa. Ideen und Innovationen für die Energie von morgen : Wissenschaftliche Beiträge des KIT zu den Jahrestagungen 2014, 2016 und 2017 des KIT-Zentrums Energie. Hrsg.: W. Breh, 59–66, KIT Scientific Publishing. doi:10.5445/IR/1000085366
Fraunholz, C.; Zimmermann, F.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2017). Price-based versus load-smoothing pumped storage operation: Long-term impacts on generation adequacy. 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 6-9 June 2017, Dresden, Germany, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/EEM.2017.7981921
Fraunholz, C.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2017). Simulation von lastglättendem und preisbasiertem Einsatz der deutschen Pumpspeicherkraftwerke. 10. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, Wien, Österreich, 15. - 17.02.2017.
Zimmermann, F.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2017). Agentenbasierte Analyse der Auswirkungen des französischen Kapazitätsmarkts. 10. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung (IEWT), Wien, A, 15. - 17.02.2017.
Zimmermann, F.; Bublitz, A.; Keles, D.; Dehler, J.; Fichtner, W. (2016). An analysis of long-term impacts of demand response on investments in thermal power plants and generation adequacy. 2016 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Porto, Portugal, 6th - 9th June 2016, 1–5, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/EEM.2016.7521216
Dehler, J.; Zimmermann, F.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2016). Der Einfluss der Nachbarländer auf den Schweizer Strommarkt. Proceedings des 14. Symposium Energieinnovationen, 10.02. - 12.02.2016, Graz, Österreich.
Keles, D.; Bublitz, A.; Fichtner, W. (2015). Bewertung unterschiedlicher Designoptionen für den deutschen Elektrizitätsmarkt und deren Auswirkungen auf die Versorgungssicherheit. 11. Fachtagung Optimierung in der Energiewirtschaft : Düsseldorf, 25. - 26. November 2015, 275–286, VDI Verlag.
Ringler, P.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2015). Flexibilisierung der Stromnachfrage und deren Auswirkung in zukünftigen Elektrizitätssystemen - Eine Untersuchung mithilfe einer agentenbasierten Simulation von Strommärkten. 11. Fachtagung Optimierung in der Energiewirtschaft : Düsseldorf, 25. und 26. November 2015, 149–165, VDI Verlag.
Bublitz, A.; Renz, L.; Keles, D.; Genoese, M.; Fichtner, W. (2015). An assessment of the newly proposed strategic reserve in Germany. 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lisbon, Portugal, 19-22 May 2015, 298–202, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/EEM.2015.7216660
Ensslen, A.; Ringler, P.; Jochem, P.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2014). About business model specifications of a smart charging manager to integrate electric vehicles into the German electricity market. 14th IAEE European Conference, October 28-31, Rome, Italy.
Bublitz, A.; Ringler, P.; Genoese, M.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2014). Agent-based simulation of interrelated wholesale electricity markets. 25th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications (DEXA) : Munich, Germany, 1. - 5. September 2014. Ed.: F. Morvan, 103–108, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). doi:10.1109/DEXA.2014.35
Renz, L.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2014). Modellgestützte Analyse von Designoptionen für den deutschen Elektrizitätsmarkt zur Gewährleistung der Versorgungssicherheit bei zunehmender Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energien. Innehalten und Ausblick: Effektivität und Effizienz für die Energiewende [Kurzfassungsband]. EnInnov. 13. Symposium Energieinnovation, 12. - 14. Februar 2014, TU Graz, Österreich. Hrsg.: U. Bachhiesl, 171–172, Verlag der Technischen Universität.
Hayn, M.; Ringler, P.; Ruppert, M.; Schmid, J.; Bertsch, V.; Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2014). A residential price elasticity model for agent-based simulation of decentralised energy systems. SmartER Europe Conference, Essen, February 13, 2014.
Keles, D.; Fichtner, W. (2013). Optimierter Einsatz von Wind-Speichersystemen unter Unsicherheit bei unterschiedlichen Marktdesigns. 10. Fachtagung Optimierung in der Energiewirtschaft, Köln, 13.-14. November 2013, 47–60, VDI Verlag.
Keles, D.; Genoese, M.; Fichtner, W. (2011). Bewertung von Speicherkraftwerken unter Unsicherheit basierend auf einem Realoptionsansatz. 9. Fachtagung Optimierung in der Energiewirtschaft - Nürtingen, 22. und 23. November 2011, 273–284, VDI Verlag.
Hartel, R.; Keles, D.; Genoese, M.; Möst, D.; Fichtner, W. (2010). Optimierter Einsatz von adiabaten und diabaten Druckluftspeichern. Syposiums Energieinnovation (EnInnov), Graz, Österreich, 11.02.2010.
Schönfelder, M.; Keles, D.; Möst, D.; Fichtner, W. (2010). Szearien für den europäischen Energiesektor bis 2050. Alte Ziele - neue Wege - 11. Symposium Energieinnovation, 10.-12. Februar 2010, TU Graz, Technische Universität Graz.
Hartel, R.; Keles, D.; Genoese, M.; Möst, D.; Fichtner, W. (2010). Optimierter Einsatz von adiabten und diabaten Druckluftspeichern. Alte Ziele - neue Wege - 11. Symposium Energieinnovation, 10.-12. Februar 2010, TU Graz, Technische Universität Graz.
Schönfelder, M.; Keles, D.; Möst, D.; Fichtner, W. (2010). Szenarien für den europäischen Energiesektor bis 2050. Alte Ziele - neue Wege - 11. Symposium Energieinnovation, 10.-12. Februar 2010, TU Graz, Technische Universität Graz.
Keles, D.; Wietschel, M.; Möst, D.; Rentz, O. (2008). The costs of policies supporting a quick transition to fuel cell vehicles. 31st IAEE International Conferences, Istanbul, Turkey, June 18-20, 2008 - conference proceedings; 1 CD-Rom, International Association for Energy Economics.